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NFP, Earnings, and Central banks!
After Federal Reserve, now it is the BoE, ECB and RBA turn to hold their monetary policy meeting. However, OPEC meeting and the US labor market data also must be watched closely in line with other important data, including employment data from Canada and NZ, and European CPI & GDP. In the financial markets, still, earnings reports are continuing and, as you know, we are waiting for more companies to publish their reports in the week ahead, while we should not forget about global geopolitical tensions.
Reserve Bank of Australia – Tuesday
While Monday, and Tuesday, most Asian markets will be closed due to the Chinese New Year, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its policy and interest rate decision meeting on Tuesday. The Australian Labor market is well growing with unemployment at 4.2%. Therefore, with inflation at 3.5%, now pressures on RBA are getting more to start increasing the rates. However, despite all improvements and speculations, it is still expected to stay on hold. But to mention in the announcement that they are ready to take the step in near future. That must still hold the pressure on the Australian Dollar.
US ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI - Tuesday & Thursday
As last week's European PMI data showed, Omicron's concerns in January affected the Manufacturing and service activities. For the United States, now we are expecting to see a bit weaker numbers. Consensus expectations for the ISM manufacturing index are to decline to 57.5 in January, and the ISM services index to fall to 59.3. These expected data should not be supportive of the US dollar.
Bank of England – Thursday
It was the first G7 member that increased the rates, and now we are expecting that BoE to stay hold and wait for more market adjustment to take a new step. The BoE already lifted the interest rate by 15bp to 0.25% in December. And despite the increasing inflation to 5.4%, still, the economy is suffering in its recovery path, therefore MPC members would like to wait at least until February meeting for the expected 25bp rate hike to 0.50%. If as expected, the Central bank in the United Kingdom makes a noncombative decision and does not do unexpected movements, British Pound still must be under pressure!
ECB Meeting – Thursday
On the same day with BoE, the European central bank also will hold its monetary policy meeting. It is a long time that market participants and investors are waiting to see the ECB's reaction to the increasing inflation. ECB PEPP program is supposed to end in March and they are planning to increase the APP pace through the second and third quarters, and now it seems the time to be a bit stricter. Therefore, expecting to see a 10bp rate hike sounds plausible. If the ECB increases the rates, then at least for the short term we can see the Euro in a bit stronger position, and if not, weakness can continue through February as well.
US employment data - Friday
Three times out of the past four reports, we missed the None Farm Payroll estimated numbers. Now analysts decreased their expectations to 155,000 Jobs in January due to ongoing labor shortages, while JOLT's numbers are still way above 10 Million. In the last months, household employment increased and lowered the unemployment rate down to 3.9%. In this report, besides the unemployment rate that we are waiting to see unchanged at 3.9%, we have to closely watch the average earnings and participant’s rate as well. Considering the lower estimate, beating the expectations is likely, therefore we can see the stronger USD before ending the week.
Earnings Reports - Across the week
According to Refinitiv, so far, 168 companies of the S&P 500 have reported, and 77% of them have beaten estimates, therefore the January effect is still positive, and we can be optimist for the rest of the year. While Apple lifted the markets with almost 7% gain after the positive report, in the week ahead, we have more important reports to watch. Google, Exxon Mobil, PayPal, and AMD on Tuesday will heat the markets, Facebook, Alibaba and eBay will be in the spotlight on Wednesday, and Amazon, Royal Dutch, Honeywell, and Eli Lilly's reports on Thursday will be the most important earnings reports to follow.
विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: NFP gave the dollar a hint. The trend does not lose relevance, a new growth forecast has been named
Balanced data came out on the US labor market on Friday, an impressive growth rate was maintained. As in March, 428,000 new jobs were created in April, which is higher than forecasted 390,000.
Unemployment also remained unchanged from the previous month (3.6%). Overall, current employment is 1.2 million below pre-pandemic peaks and reflects full employment.
Traders' focus on the report on employment in the non-farm sector is the average wage. This is perhaps the most important economic indicator that has maintained support for Treasury yields and the dollar.
US Average Hourly Wage Y/Y
The average hourly wage rose by 0.3% in April compared to March and by 5.5% in annual terms. Historically, this is a high growth rate, but it is still not able to outpace the 8.5% price increase.
However, wage growth has stabilized and is unlikely to push inflation sharply upwards, as it was before. It is worth noting that the current data does not provide for the need for a more stringent Federal Reserve rate hike. In other words, they are a kind of signal that the Fed will continue to adhere to the current course in monetary policy.
Friday's balance of signals from the labor market should contain fluctuations in the stock and currency markets, but the trends will remain unchanged. The stock market will weaken, albeit at a slower pace, and the dollar will strengthen.
At the end of the working week, the dollar index still conquered the 104.00 high, thus testing new peaks in almost 20 years. It wasn't difficult, as major competitors are losing customer support one by one.
The US dollar now has good chances to settle above 104.00. The last time the index tried to climb higher, the economy and inflation needed to be stimulated. Now everything is quite the opposite - cooling is needed.
Compared to last year, now the attitude towards the greenback has changed a lot, given that in 2021 the dollar was often talked about as losing its status. This sort of thing happens from time to time when things go downhill for a greenback. Now it is back on horseback and can overtake previous achievements.
The rising value of the dollar, along with more attractive US Treasury yields, make it an almost uncompromising choice at the moment.
Experts almost unanimously talk about the strength of the dollar. Economists at HSBC believe it will continue to rise.
"We continue to believe that the US dollar will remain strong. First, the Fed's attitude to the corresponding pace of tightening may change if the situation requires it. Secondly, the 50bp momentum is likely to be maintained over the next few meetings. Third, while dollar bears will say that the Fed's aggressive hike is priced in, the same is true for most Big 10 central banks. And finally, the dollar will remain the most attractive buy in the face of global slowdown risks," strategists comment.
On Friday, the US dollar index is under some selling pressure after reaching 104.00. However, the underlying bullish potential remains in place. A fresh surge above 104.00 should test 105.63 (11 December NFP और विदेशी मुद्रा 2002 high) before targeting the December 2002 peak at 107.31.
Such movements of the US currency will force its key competitors to retreat further. Will European and Japanese officials calmly watch their names fall broadly? Probably not. This will exacerbate the existing economic problems and the situation with inflation.
Japan managed to stop the strongest fall of the yen at the end of April, which stabilized near 130.00 against the dollar. Recently, there has been a wave of intensification from politicians about a possible tightening of rates to match the pace of tightening from the Fed.
So far, these are only verbal interventions, and the greenback looks extremely confident. If next week it manages to settle above 104.00 on the index, then the bulls' appetite will rise significantly. The 107.00 level, the next technical stop may well be the value of 120.00. Here we are talking about the high since the beginning of this century.
*यहां पर लिखा गया बाजार विश्लेषण आपकी जागरूकता बढ़ाने के लिए किया है, लेकिन व्यापार करने के लिए निर्देश देने के लिए नहीं |
The earnings report and NFP numbers
While earnings reports will be continued in the week ahead, BoE and RBA policy meetings and press conferences will also be the center of attention. Also, we should follow Powell and other FOMC members' speeches and wait for solid job data on Friday's NFP report. Let's take a look at the most important events of the week.
Earning reports.
Last week as we were expecting, new records have been printed in all Wallstreet indices, while it is going to be another week with another set of new records for stock markets. At the last week's Fed meeting, the central bank stayed committed to full employment and interest rate goals. According to the latest Refinitiv data, so far, 303 companies from the S&P 500 list reported their earnings for Q1 2021, and 87.1% of them have beaten expectations. Last quarter the beating rate was about 76%. This week another 139 companies from the S&P 500 list will report, including
Uber, Pfizer, AIG, Lyft, AMC, and General Motors.
SP500 looks at 4,230 and 4,260 levels on its currently uptrend; however, profit taking by investors at these record levels can be the main risk at the moment for a correction under the 4,000 level.
NFP data on Friday
The week's event will surely be Friday's employment report, which is the FED's primary commitment at the moment. We are waiting for a 5.7% unemployment rate, down from 6% in March. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise 950k from a previous 916k. We expect profit-taking in stock markets and upbeat economic numbers. While treasure yields are also growing, the USD index due to grow above 91.20 level; however, technically, under 91.00 level, deeper numbers are expected to come into the spotlight.
Central bank's meeting in UK and Australia
Australian central bank Interest Rate Decision, Statement, and press conference will be on Tuesday. No change is expected in its rates and monetary policy until a target inflation rate between 2 and 3% will be achieved. While from the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, we expect to lower the stimulus and ease on bond purchases level at its meeting as GBPUSD Outlook. Britain's economy is strongly recovering from the worst recession of the past 300 years. In the February meeting, the BoE forecast the economy to grow 5% this year after a 10% contraction of the past year. With the expecting decision of BoE and USD growth, we are expecting more downtrend under the 1.38 level for cable.
Economic data, important speeches
On the light economic calendar, Monday ISM Manufacturing PMI and New Orders, both expected to raise, and later on, the same day, Mr. Powellwill have speech. However, we are not expecting any surprises from that. Wednesday ISM service data and ADP numbers will be published as well as US oil inventory levels by EIA. Thursday Jobless claims are essential; however, traders probably will be waiting for Friday's NFP number to react. During the week, most FOMC members, including Robert Kaplan, John Williams, Neel Kashkari, Eric Rosengren and Loretta Mester, will speak. Thanks for watching this video and hope you will have amazing week ahead.
NFP, Earnings, and Central banks!
After Federal Reserve, now it is the BoE, ECB and RBA turn to hold their monetary policy meeting. However, OPEC meeting and the US labor market data also must be watched closely in line with other important data, including employment data from Canada and NZ, and European CPI & GDP. In the financial markets, still, earnings reports are continuing and, as you know, we are waiting for more companies to publish their reports in the week ahead, while we should not forget about global geopolitical tensions.
Reserve Bank of Australia – Tuesday
While Monday, and Tuesday, most Asian markets will be closed due to the Chinese New Year, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its policy and interest rate decision meeting on Tuesday. The Australian Labor market is well growing with unemployment at 4.2%. Therefore, with inflation at 3.5%, now pressures on RBA are getting more to start increasing the rates. However, despite all improvements and NFP और विदेशी मुद्रा speculations, it is still expected to stay on hold. But to mention in the announcement that they are ready to take the step in near future. That must still hold the pressure on the Australian Dollar.
US ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI - Tuesday & Thursday
As last week's European PMI data showed, Omicron's concerns in January affected the Manufacturing and service activities. For the United States, now we are expecting to see a bit weaker numbers. Consensus expectations for the ISM manufacturing index are to decline to 57.5 in January, and the ISM services index to fall to 59.3. These expected data should not be supportive of the US dollar.
Bank of England – Thursday
It was the first G7 member that increased the rates, and now we are expecting that BoE to stay hold and wait for more market adjustment to take a new step. The BoE already lifted the interest rate by 15bp to 0.25% in December. And despite the increasing inflation to 5.4%, still, the economy is suffering in its recovery path, therefore MPC members would like to wait at least until February meeting for the expected 25bp rate hike to 0.50%. If as expected, the Central bank in the United Kingdom makes a noncombative decision and does not do unexpected movements, British Pound still must be under pressure!
ECB Meeting – Thursday
On the same day with BoE, the European central bank also will hold its monetary policy meeting. It is a long time that market participants and investors are waiting to see the ECB's reaction to the increasing inflation. ECB PEPP program is supposed to end in March and they are planning to increase the APP pace through the second and third quarters, and now it seems the time to be a bit stricter. Therefore, expecting to see a 10bp rate hike sounds plausible. If the ECB increases the rates, then at least for the short term we can see the Euro in a bit stronger position, and if not, weakness can continue through February as well.
US employment data - Friday
Three times out of the past four reports, we missed the None Farm Payroll estimated numbers. Now analysts decreased their expectations to 155,000 Jobs in January due to ongoing labor shortages, while JOLT's numbers are still way above 10 Million. In the last months, household employment increased and lowered the unemployment rate down to 3.9%. In this report, besides the unemployment rate that we are waiting to see unchanged at 3.9%, we have to closely watch the average earnings and participant’s rate as well. Considering the lower estimate, beating the expectations is likely, therefore we can see the stronger USD before ending the week.
Earnings Reports - Across the week
According to Refinitiv, so far, 168 companies of the S&P 500 have reported, and 77% of them have beaten estimates, therefore the January effect is still positive, and we can be optimist for the rest of the year. While Apple lifted the markets with almost 7% gain after the positive report, in the week ahead, we have more important reports to watch. Google, Exxon Mobil, PayPal, and AMD on Tuesday will heat the markets, Facebook, Alibaba and NFP और विदेशी मुद्रा eBay will be in the spotlight on Wednesday, and Amazon, Royal Dutch, Honeywell, and Eli Lilly's reports on Thursday will be the most important earnings reports to follow.
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